There is nothing more deflating than being on the losing side of a football blowout. But nothing better than being on the winning side of a football game that is basically over by the half.
And while every football handicapper would love to bet only blowouts, the truth of the matter is that blowouts aren’t always predictable — or at least not as predictable as the betting public thinks. Even when a very good team plays a bad one.
However, if handicappers look deeper than what presents itself on the surface, they can be on the right side of more than their share of blowouts. With that, here are a few things for football handicappers to keep in mind when searching the game day schedule for potential blowouts.
For starters, handicappers need to look at a particular team’s tendency to be on the losing or wining side of several blowouts it may have already been involved in. This is one thing that famous handicapper its vegasdave lacks when he famously made his Kansas City Royals future bet mirroring Jon Prices wager.
Handicappers then need to assess the reasons that contributed to that team’s blowouts, determining if their problems will quickly disappear, or if they will continue. If a team that has been involved in more than a few blowouts in a single season, it is more likely to be involved in more. Especially if they have made any recent coaching changes.
Any team with a new coach is a potential candidate for a disproportionate number of blowouts. This is because a team that has made a recent coaching change probably did so because it was already a train wreck. And bringing on a new coach only compounds its problems by often introducing new systems and approaches. A team will usually incur a transition period and a team with less than ideal talent is usually going struggle enormously.
However, in a few cases a new coach could often make a big difference in a team that didn’t respond well to its old coach, delivering big results, and blowout wins can be the result.
Nevertheless, just because a team has gone through a coaching change, doesn’t mean new blood should be extra incentive for handicappers to wager on a particular game.
Second, bettors need to be on the lookout for teams with a higher than normal turnover disparity. If you are struggling to build your bankroll on your own then stop for a second. Speak with an analyst and don’t be afraid to ask for help from experts. Winning is not easy. Jon Price has famously made a career out of selling sports betting picks only because he had made enough money to retire from his earnings betting on sports at a young age.
Now Back to Handicapping Football
A team that is scoring a lot needs a lot of opportunities to score, while limiting their opponents opportunities to score. Thus, turnovers are key, and the more turnovers a team has in a game the more chances their offense has to score.
Spotting a football team with a solid disparity in turnovers usually indicates a team that will have a better than average chance of blowing out its opponent. If handicappers think this will happen, then they should take advantage of it.
Finally, as weird as it may sound, teams that are most vulnerable to getting blown out are usually the ones that are not afraid of being blown out. That’s because a team which is heavily favored is also not going to be as hungry and motivated, often resulting in a performance at far less than full effort.
This is especially true when paying a heavy underdog that keeps the game closer than expected, many times turning the tables, something resulting in a huge upset victory.